The Spread: Daily Oil & Gas Briefing https://jaimeam.github.io/the-spread/ A short daily briefing on oil and gas, refining, petrochemicals and midstream: Brent and WTI, LNG and European gas, refining margins, OPEC and shipping. What moved today, and why it matters. Every number is sourced, and claims are kept apart from facts. Built from free and official sources, and written and read with AI. en Jaime Adroher Jaime Adroher Jaime Adroherjaime.adroher@gmail.com false episodic e0804b8a-fcbb-5fd2-b9bf-53881813334f Qatar takes Iran offer to US; Saudi bypass pipeline hit | 10 Nov Qatar's prime minister is taking an Iranian interim proposal to reopen Hormuz to the White House, and Brent fell about 7% on Monday. That happened even though Saudi Arabia's main Hormuz bypass pipeline was attacked the same day. This episode is written and read with AI, from public sources. Show notes link to every source. In this episode: - Qatar takes Iran offer to US - Saudi bypass pipeline hit - Russian diesel cargoes divert from US - LNG above $30 as China steps back - Margins, risk costs and deals Full written brief: https://github.com/jaimeam/the-spread/blob/main/briefs/2026-11-10-public.md Sources: - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Sinks-to-94-as-Irans-8-Billion-Hormuz-Deal-Heads-to-Trump.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Brent-Crashes-7-on-Iran-Peace-Hopes-Despite-Fresh-Saudi-Pipeline-Attack.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Fall-as-Trump-Signals-No-New-Attacks-on-Iran.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/trump_hints_us_holding_back_from_striking_iran-09-nov-2026-185036-article/?rss=true - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_prices_sink_on_iran_peace_hopes-09-nov-2026-185046-article/?rss=true - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Iraqs-Oil-Sales-to-America-Fall-to-Lowest-Since-the-2003-War.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Iraq-Strikes-US-Deal-to-Boost-Oil-Exports-Through-Hormuz.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Pipeline-Attacked-as-OPEC-Output-Climbs-to-90-of-Pre-War-Levels.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/aramco_tower_targeted-09-nov-2026-185044-article/?rss=true - Splash247: https://splash247.com/hormuz-suffers-weekend-of-fire/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Traders-Weigh-the-Cost-of-Taking-Trumps-Russian-Diesel.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Global-LNG-Markets-Face-a-Winter-of-Extreme-Uncertainty.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-Cuts-LNG-Imports-as-Cheap-Domestic-Gas-Undercuts-Global-Prices.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Europes-Power-Prices-Jump-to-2022-High-as-Wind-and-Solar-Falter.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/hungarys_mol_group_sees_profit_surge_on_bumper_refining_margins-09-nov-2026-185038-article/?rss=true - Splash247: https://splash247.com/black-sea-shipping-reels-from-fresh-attacks-and-record-insurance-costs/ - OFAC: https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261109 - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Iran-Moves-to-Control-Oil-Terminals-in-China-Leak-Shows.html - World Oil: https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/11/9/strathcona-to-acquire-greenfire-in-2-1-billion-oil-sands-deal/ - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/strathcona_greenfire_agree_oil_sands_merger-09-nov-2026-185042-article/?rss=true - Splash247: https://splash247.com/cosco-unveils-massive-supertanker-fleet-push/ Qatar's prime minister is taking an Iranian interim proposal to reopen Hormuz to the White House, and Brent fell about 7% on Monday. That happened even though Saudi Arabia's main Hormuz bypass pipeline was attacked the same day.

This episode is written and read with AI, from public sources. Show notes link to every source.

In this episode

  • Qatar takes Iran offer to US
  • Saudi bypass pipeline hit
  • Russian diesel cargoes divert from US
  • LNG above $30 as China steps back
  • Margins, risk costs and deals

Read the full written brief

Sources

Qatar takes Iran offer to US

Saudi bypass pipeline hit

Russian diesel cargoes divert from US

LNG above $30 as China steps back

Margins, risk costs and deals

]]> the-spread-2026-11-10 Tue, 10 Nov 2026 06:00:00 +0000 5:42 false full Iraq claims Hormuz lane deal; Sixth Russian refinery hit | 9 Nov Iraq says Washington has agreed a lane for its oil exports through Hormuz near Oman, while US forces disabled a ship trying to run the Iran blockade. Crude ended last week with its steepest weekly loss since 2022 as peace bets outran the fighting. This episode is written and read with AI, from public sources. Show notes link to every source. In this episode: - Iraq claims Hormuz lane deal - Sixth Russian refinery hit - US disables blockade runner off Oman - Peace bets drive steepest weekly loss since 2022 - Traders seek sanctioned tankers as freight bites - Chinese diesel exports seen lower - Gas draws accelerate; Egypt cuts fertiliser supply - Deals Full written brief: https://github.com/jaimeam/the-spread/blob/main/briefs/2026-11-09-public.md Sources: - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/iraq-has-reached-understandings-with-us-to-allow-oil-exports-through-hormuz/ - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/survey_shows_opec_output_neared_prewar_levels-07-nov-2026-185030-article/?rss=true - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Iraqs-5-Million-Bpd-Oil-Claim-Complicates-Its-OPEC-Quota-Push.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Indias-HPCL-Struggles-to-Secure-Oil-Tankers-as-Hormuz-Risks-Persist.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/kyiv_hits_6th_russian_oil_plant_in_week-06-nov-2026-185031-article/?rss=true - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/russian_spending_on_refinery_subsidies_hits_highest_since_2022-06-nov-2026-185024-article/?rss=true - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/russia-says-it-hit-three-cargo-ships-in-black-sea/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/us-military-says-it-disabled-cargo-vessel-in-gulf-of-oman/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/iran-suggests-blasts-are-not-us-attacks-as-both-sides-report-ships-hit/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/seafarer-killed-in-suspected-missile-attack-on-tanker-in-gulf/ - Splash247: https://splash247.com/seafarer-missing-in-gulf-tanker-strike-as-iran-redraws-hormuz-blacklist/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/iran-oil-exports-near-zero-but-peace-deal-not-likely-fge-says/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Iran-War-Isnt-Over-but-Oil-Traders-Are-Already-Pricing-In-Peace.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_posts_biggest_weekly_drop_since_2022-06-nov-2026-185035-article/?rss=true - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Plunge-as-US-Elections-Shake-Up-the-Iran-War.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Trumps-Iran-Strategy-Reaches-a-Critical-Crossroads-After-Midterm-Defeat.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/The-Global-Oil-Glut-Returns-as-High-Prices-Crush-Demand.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Asias-Fuel-Oil-Market-Signals-Hopes-of-US-Iran-De-Escalation.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Traders-Want-US-to-Release-Sanctioned-Tankers-as-Freight-Costs-Soar.html - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/soaring-freight-rates-give-us-refiners-edge-as-crude-discounts-widen/ - EIA: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68425 - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Energy-Aspects-Slashes-Forecast-of-Chinas-November-Diesel-Exports.html - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/egypt-deepens-gas-cuts-to-fertilizer-makers-as-energy-squeeze-tightens/ - World Oil: https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/11/6/havtil-investigates-fire-in-emergency-switchboard-room-on-equinor-operated-visund/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/adani-ports-makes-major-push-into-europe-with-2-9-billion-evos-acquisition/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/ADNOC-Expands-LNG-Empire-With-Major-New-India-Supply-Deal.html - More in the full written brief. Iraq says Washington has agreed a lane for its oil exports through Hormuz near Oman, while US forces disabled a ship trying to run the Iran blockade. Crude ended last week with its steepest weekly loss since 2022 as peace bets outran the fighting.

This episode is written and read with AI, from public sources. Show notes link to every source.

In this episode

  • Iraq claims Hormuz lane deal
  • Sixth Russian refinery hit
  • US disables blockade runner off Oman
  • Peace bets drive steepest weekly loss since 2022
  • Traders seek sanctioned tankers as freight bites
  • Chinese diesel exports seen lower
  • Gas draws accelerate; Egypt cuts fertiliser supply
  • Deals

Read the full written brief

Sources

Iraq claims Hormuz lane deal

Sixth Russian refinery hit

US disables blockade runner off Oman

Peace bets drive steepest weekly loss since 2022

Traders seek sanctioned tankers as freight bites

Chinese diesel exports seen lower

Gas draws accelerate; Egypt cuts fertiliser supply

Deals

]]> the-spread-2026-11-09 Mon, 09 Nov 2026 06:00:00 +0000 6:32 false full Crude rebounds 4% after rout; Iran exempts China and India | 6 Nov Crude recovered about 4% on Thursday as traders doubted that the midterm result means a quick end to the Iran war, and Tehran said it is exempting China and India from its Hormuz restrictions. In the US, refiners are making less gasoline than in any recent year so they can produce more diesel and jet fuel. This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source. In this episode: - Crude rebounds 4% after rout - Iran exempts China and India - US refiners swap gasoline for diesel - Chinese diesel exports to drop - EU gas draw steepens - Export routes and capacity - Deals and results Full written brief: https://github.com/jaimeam/the-spread/blob/main/briefs/2026-11-06-public.md Sources: - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Rebounds-Toward-100-as-Democrats-Sweep-Rattles-Energy-Stocks.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Rebound-Sharply-After-Brutal-Midweek-Rout.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Continue-to-Fall-as-Democratic-Sweep-Shakes-Energy-Markets.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_rebounds_after_sharp_iran_war_selloff-05-nov-2026-185023-article/?rss=true - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/European-Gas-Prices-Drop-on-Iran-Deal-Hopes-after-US-Midterms.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Iran-Opens-Strait-of-Hormuz-to-China-and-India-as-US-Blockade-Continues.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Iran-Reports-More-Tanker-Fires-in-Strait-of-Hormuz.html - EIA: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68424 - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Refineries-Make-Dramatic-Shift-Away-From-Gasoline.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinas-Diesel-Exports-Set-to-Plunge-as-Domestic-Inventories-Run-Low.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/EU-Not-Planning-to-Resume-Russian-Gas-Purchases.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/drop_in_rhine_water_levels_risks_higher_barge_rates-05-nov-2026-185019-article/?rss=true - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/marad-approves-1-billion-offshore-crude-oil-export-port-off-louisiana/ - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/aramco_looks_to_strengthen_supply_network_ceo_reveals-05-nov-2026-185016-article/?rss=true - Splash247: https://splash247.com/us-sanctions-indian-couple-behind-fake-flag-empire-serving-irans-shadow-fleet/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/france-extends-maritime-patrol-planes-stay-in-black-sea-after-cargo-ship-attacks/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/ConocoPhillips-Doubles-Profit-to-4-Billion-Raises-Dividend.html - Splash247: https://splash247.com/bp-raises-over-1bn-from-aker-bp-stake-sale/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/SOCAR-Bets-165-Billion-on-US-Shale-Gas-Boom.html - Splash247: https://splash247.com/brazil-approves-saipem-subsea-7-merger-on-condition-of-vessel-sale/ - Splash247: https://splash247.com/uk-moves-to-end-new-north-sea-oil-and-gas-exploration-licences/ - LNG Industry: https://www.lngindustry.com/liquid-natural-gas/05112026/venture-global-awards-worley-epc-contract-for-cp2-expansion-project/ - Splash247: https://splash247.com/woodside-to-cut-more-than-500-jobs-in-400m-savings-drive/ Crude recovered about 4% on Thursday as traders doubted that the midterm result means a quick end to the Iran war, and Tehran said it is exempting China and India from its Hormuz restrictions. In the US, refiners are making less gasoline than in any recent year so they can produce more diesel and jet fuel.

This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source.

In this episode

  • Crude rebounds 4% after rout
  • Iran exempts China and India
  • US refiners swap gasoline for diesel
  • Chinese diesel exports to drop
  • EU gas draw steepens
  • Export routes and capacity
  • Deals and results

Read the full written brief

Sources

Crude rebounds 4% after rout

Iran exempts China and India

US refiners swap gasoline for diesel

Chinese diesel exports to drop

EU gas draw steepens

Export routes and capacity

Deals and results

]]> the-spread-2026-11-06 Fri, 06 Nov 2026 06:00:00 +0000 6:29 false full Oil crashes 9% after midterms; Fire halts Visund gas output | 5 Nov Crude fell about 9% on Wednesday after the White House tied its midterm losses to the Iran war and Trump said he had no immediate plans to strike Iran. Gas stayed tight: a fire took Norway's Visund export capacity offline, and US distillate stocks drew sharply. This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source. In this episode: - Oil crashes 9% after midterms - Fire halts Visund gas output - US distillates draw 3.6m bbl - Butane hits 30-year high - UAE weighs third Hormuz bypass - US sanctions Iran shadow-fleet registries - CVR deal with Marathon announced Full written brief: https://github.com/jaimeam/the-spread/blob/main/briefs/2026-11-05-public.md Sources: - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Crashes-9-as-Trump-and-Vance-Blame-Iran-War-for-Midterm-Rout.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Brent-Falls-to-100-as-Traders-Bet-on-a-US-Iran-Deal.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Rebound-as-Middle-East-Supply-Fears-Return.html - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/trump-plays-down-prospect-of-iran-strikes-after-midterm-rout/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/trumps-election-defeat-leaves-iran-war-with-no-easy-exit/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/vance-blames-his-own-administrations-iran-war-for-republican-defeat/ - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_market_weighs_next_stage_in_iran_conflict_after_midterms-04-nov-2026-185004-article/?rss=true - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Iran-Says-Four-Oil-Tankers-Destroyed-by-Mines-Near-Strait-of-Hormuz.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Fire-Shuts-Equinors-Visund-Platform-in-Norwegian-North-Sea.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Polar-Vortex-Puts-Europes-Gas-Reserves-at-Risk.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/European-Gas-Prices-Fall-2-as-Traders-Wait-on-Trumps-Next-Move-in-Iran.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Iran-War-and-AI-Boom-Drive-Global-Gas-Supply-Crunch.html - GIE AGSI: https://agsi.gie.eu/ - EIA: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Oil-Inventories-Fall-Further-As-Demand-Holds.html - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/maritime-industry-urges-trump-to-let-jones-act-waiver-expire-november-15/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Butanes-Perfect-Storm-Sends-Prices-to-Decade-Highs.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/UAE-Weighs-Plans-for-Third-Strait-of-Hormuz-Bypass-Pipeline.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/uae_mulls_3rd_crude_oil_pipeline_to_avoid_hormuz-04-nov-2026-185009-article/?rss=true - Splash247: https://splash247.com/aramco-starts-production-from-giant-oilfield-expansion-project/ - OFAC: https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261104 - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/u-s-targets-fraudulent-ship-registries-used-by-irans-shadow-fleet/ - Hydrocarbon Engineering: https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/refining/04112026/cvr-energy-to-acquire-two-refineries-and-marketing-platform-from-marathon-petroleum/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/New-Jersey-Moves-to-Block-Trumps-Russian-Diesel-Imports.html - Splash247: https://splash247.com/north-sea-strikes-escalate-as-apache-and-wood-workers-walk-out/ Crude fell about 9% on Wednesday after the White House tied its midterm losses to the Iran war and Trump said he had no immediate plans to strike Iran. Gas stayed tight: a fire took Norway's Visund export capacity offline, and US distillate stocks drew sharply.

This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source.

In this episode

  • Oil crashes 9% after midterms
  • Fire halts Visund gas output
  • US distillates draw 3.6m bbl
  • Butane hits 30-year high
  • UAE weighs third Hormuz bypass
  • US sanctions Iran shadow-fleet registries
  • CVR deal with Marathon announced

Read the full written brief

Sources

Oil crashes 9% after midterms

Fire halts Visund gas output

US distillates draw 3.6m bbl

Butane hits 30-year high

UAE weighs third Hormuz bypass

US sanctions Iran shadow-fleet registries

CVR deal with Marathon announced

Still developing

]]> the-spread-2026-11-05 Thu, 05 Nov 2026 06:00:00 +0000 6:26 false full Dubai flips to contango; Diesel stays short to 2027 | 4 Nov Dubai crude has slipped into contango for the first time since July as Gulf barrels pile up, even as the world stays short of diesel. Brent whipsawed on conflicting US-Iran peace headlines after Washington confirmed a strike on Qeshm Island. This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source. In this episode: - Dubai flips to contango - Diesel stays short to 2027 - US confirms Qeshm strike as Brent whipsaws - IEA sees gas tight into 2027 - Aramco profit up despite attacks - New Jersey warns ports off Russian diesel - Houthi ground raids into Saudi Arabia reported - Deals and data Full written brief: https://github.com/jaimeam/the-spread/blob/main/briefs/2026-11-04-public.md Sources: - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Dubai-Benchmark-Slips-Into-Contango-for-the-First-Time-Since-July.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Trump-Bombs-Iran-Talks-Peace-and-Sends-Oil-Prices-Tumbling.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Indian-Refiner-BPCL-Buys-US-WTI-Crude-Oil-Cargo.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Global-Diesel-Crunch-Set-to-Last-Well-Into-2027.html - EIA: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68404 - Splash247: https://splash247.com/singapore-vlsfo-back-above-1000-for-first-time-since-march/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Launches-Secret-Strikes-on-Iran-Ahead-of-Midterm-Elections.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Brent-Flash-Crashes-6-Before-Rebounding-Towards-104.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/us_iran_restore_diplomacy_amid_limited_strikes-03-nov-2026-184996-article/?rss=true - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Hormuz-Oil-Flows-Unlikely-to-Return-to-Pre-War-Levels-Rystad-Says.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/IEA-Warns-Global-Gas-Crunch-Could-Last-Well-into-2027.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-LNG-Exports-Near-Record-High-as-Europe-Scrambles-for-Winter-Supply.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Iran-War-Doubles-Egypts-LNG-Bill-as-Gas-Output-Keeps-Falling.html - LNG Industry: https://www.lngindustry.com/liquid-natural-gas/03112026/adnoc-gas-signs-five-year-lng-supply-agreement-with-totalenergies/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Aramco-Profit-Beats-Expectations-as-Oil-Prices-Soar.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/aramco_logs_9_pct_higher_profit-03-nov-2026-184994-article/?rss=true - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-Higher-Oil-Prices-Arent-Solving-Saudi-Aramcos-Biggest-Problems.html - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/new-jersey-governor-warns-ports-against-handling-russian-diesel/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Houthi-Fighters-Launch-Ground-Incursions-Into-Saudi-Arabia.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Crude-Oil-Inventories-Still-in-Freefall.html - World Oil: https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/11/3/shell-to-sell-north-west-shelf-lng-stake-to-adnoc-s-xrg-for-1-45-billion/ - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/xrg_to_buy_shell_stake_in_australian_lng_project-03-nov-2026-184995-article/?rss=true - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/CVR-Energy-Nears-4-Billion-Refinery-Deal-With-Marathon.html - World Oil: https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/11/3/iraq-says-terms-agreed-with-chevron-on-west-qurna-2-contract-signing-targeted-before-year-end/ - World Oil: https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/11/3/brazil-sets-second-straight-monthly-output-record-as-pre-salt-reaches-5-1-mmboed/ Dubai crude has slipped into contango for the first time since July as Gulf barrels pile up, even as the world stays short of diesel. Brent whipsawed on conflicting US-Iran peace headlines after Washington confirmed a strike on Qeshm Island.

This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source.

In this episode

  • Dubai flips to contango
  • Diesel stays short to 2027
  • US confirms Qeshm strike as Brent whipsaws
  • IEA sees gas tight into 2027
  • Aramco profit up despite attacks
  • New Jersey warns ports off Russian diesel
  • Houthi ground raids into Saudi Arabia reported
  • Deals and data

Read the full written brief

Sources

Dubai flips to contango

Diesel stays short to 2027

US confirms Qeshm strike as Brent whipsaws

IEA sees gas tight into 2027

Aramco profit up despite attacks

New Jersey warns ports off Russian diesel

Houthi ground raids into Saudi Arabia reported

Deals and data

]]> the-spread-2026-11-04 Wed, 04 Nov 2026 06:00:00 +0000 7:06 false full Brent sinks 7% on Iran talks; Germany misses gas fill goal | 3 Nov Crude lost nearly 7% on Monday after Washington and Tehran both signalled room for diplomacy, though tankers were still being hit in the Gulf. In Europe, Germany entered winter well short of its gas storage obligation, with TTF above €100/MWh. This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source. In this episode: - Brent sinks 7% on Iran talks - Germany misses gas fill goal - Attacks reach the northern Gulf - Ukraine resumes refinery strikes - Deals and start-ups Full written brief: https://github.com/jaimeam/the-spread/blob/main/briefs/2026-11-03-public.md Sources: - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Plunge-7-as-US-and-Iran-Signal-Room-for-Diplomacy.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Plunge-as-Draft-Proposal-to-End-US-Iran-War-is-Circulated.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Slide-3-as-Hopes-for-Iran-Peace-Deal-Grow.html - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/iran-says-contacts-over-ending-war-continue-after-talks-finish-with-no-breakthrough/ - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_plunges_as_iran_opens_door_to_talks-02-nov-2026-184990-article/?rss=true - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Goldman-Sachs-Raises-Brent-Oil-Price-Forecast-to-105.html - World Oil: https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/11/2/adnoc-s-al-jaber-energy-security-now-measured-by-delivery-not-just-production/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/ADNOC-Chief-Says-World-Has-Eroded-Its-Supply-Buffers.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Germany-Misses-Gas-Storage-Target-as-Prices-Soar.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Pushes-to-Restore-Russian-Gas-Flows-to-Europe.html - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/new-wave-of-attacks-hits-tankers-and-lng-carrier-in-strait-of-hormuz-and-persian-gulf/ - Splash247: https://splash247.com/hormuz-attacks-spread-deeper-into-the-gulf/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Rare-Iranian-Strike-On-Vessel-Hundreds-Of-Miles-From-Strait-Of-Hormuz.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Iraqs-Oil-Exports-via-Turkey-Surge-to-500000-Bpd.html - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/uae-to-protect-energy-infrastructure-invest-in-new-export-routes-to-prepare-for-iran-war-minister-says/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Ukraine-Has-Hit-Three-Russian-Refineries-Since-Friday.html - Offshore Energy: https://offshore-energy.biz/2026/11/02/shell-lifts-first-cargo-as-venture-globals-us-lng-project-kicks-off-commercial-ops - LNG Industry: https://www.lngindustry.com/liquid-natural-gas/02112026/venture-global-commences-commercial-operations-of-phase-one-of-plaquemines-lng/ - World Oil: https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/11/2/totalenergies-acquires-30-operated-interest-in-lang-lebah-b14-gas-fields-offshore-malaysia/ - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/bp_completes_6b_sale_of_65_percent_stake_in_castrol-02-nov-2026-184986-article/?rss=true - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Blackstone-Led-Investors-Buy-into-LNG-Canada-for-31-Billion.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/eni_starts_production_at_maha_gas_field_offshore_indonesia-02-nov-2026-184987-article/?rss=true - LNG Industry: https://www.lngindustry.com/liquid-natural-gas/02112026/adnoc-takes-fid-on-ruwais-diyab-unconventional-gas-development/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Sanctioned-Iranian-Tanker-Slips-Past-US-Blockade-Delivers-Cargo-to-China.html Crude lost nearly 7% on Monday after Washington and Tehran both signalled room for diplomacy, though tankers were still being hit in the Gulf. In Europe, Germany entered winter well short of its gas storage obligation, with TTF above €100/MWh.

This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source.

In this episode

  • Brent sinks 7% on Iran talks
  • Germany misses gas fill goal
  • Attacks reach the northern Gulf
  • Ukraine resumes refinery strikes
  • Deals and start-ups

Read the full written brief

Sources

Brent sinks 7% on Iran talks

Germany misses gas fill goal

Attacks reach the northern Gulf

Ukraine resumes refinery strikes

Deals and start-ups

Still developing

]]> the-spread-2026-11-03 Tue, 03 Nov 2026 06:00:00 +0000 6:22 false full Pakistan LNG ship attacked; EU gas tops €101/MWh | 2 Nov An LNG carrier cleared by Iran was attacked near Hormuz, and limpet mines have hit a tanker for the first time in the war. European gas has topped €101/MWh, Brent ended October near $118, and Russia has kept its diesel export ban in place through January. This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source. In this episode: - Pakistan LNG ship attacked - EU gas tops €101/MWh - Brent ends October near $118 - Russian diesel ban runs to January - OPEC+ leaves December quotas unchanged - Refining drives Q3 profits; freight costs show Full written brief: https://github.com/jaimeam/the-spread/blob/main/briefs/2026-11-02-public.md Sources: - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/pakistan-lng-cargo-attacked-near-hormuz-had-iranian-approval/ - Splash247: https://splash247.com/tanker-targeted-with-hull-mounted-explosives-in-hormuz/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/tanker-in-strait-of-hormuz-hit-by-limpet-mines-security-sources-say/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/irans-irgc-navy-says-four-tankers-catch-fire-in-strait-of-hormuz/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Brent-Hits-117-as-Tanker-Catches-Fire-in-Strait-of-Hormuz.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/European-Gas-Tops-101-Euros-for-First-Time-Since-2022.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Japan-to-Overtake-China-As-Worlds-Top-LNG-Importer-This-Year.html - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/venture-global-begins-supplying-plaquemines-customers-under-long-term-lng-contracts/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Traders-Brace-for-a-Wild-Week-as-Brent-Approaches-120.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Wall-Street-Banks-Raise-Oil-Price-Forecasts-as-Supply-Fears-Deepen.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Houthis-Claim-Fresh-Strikes-on-Saudi-Oil-Refineries-and-Aramco-Facilities.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_creeps_higher_amid_uncertainty_over_usa_strategy_in_iran-30-oct-2026-184984-article/?rss=true - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/russia-extends-ban-on-most-diesel-exports-through-january/ - Kpler: https://www.kpler.com/blog/economics-improve-but-arbs-remain-closed-into-europe - World Oil: https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/11/1/opec-subgroup-keeps-oil-production-quotas-unchanged-for-december/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/ExxonMobil-Profits-Double-to-154-Billion.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chevron-Profits-Nearly-Triple-to-99-Billion.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/BP-Quadruples-Profit-to-Record-as-War-Boosts-Refining-and-Trading.html - Splash247: https://splash247.com/oil-majors-count-the-cost-of-runaway-tanker-rates/ An LNG carrier cleared by Iran was attacked near Hormuz, and limpet mines have hit a tanker for the first time in the war. European gas has topped €101/MWh, Brent ended October near $118, and Russia has kept its diesel export ban in place through January.

This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source.

In this episode

  • Pakistan LNG ship attacked
  • EU gas tops €101/MWh
  • Brent ends October near $118
  • Russian diesel ban runs to January
  • OPEC+ leaves December quotas unchanged
  • Refining drives Q3 profits; freight costs show

Read the full written brief

Sources

Pakistan LNG ship attacked

EU gas tops €101/MWh

Brent ends October near $118

Russian diesel ban runs to January

OPEC+ leaves December quotas unchanged

Refining drives Q3 profits; freight costs show

]]> the-spread-2026-11-02 Mon, 02 Nov 2026 06:00:00 +0000 6:16 false full Europe to release 42m bbl; Tanker sinking off Oman after projectile strike | 30 Oct Europe plans to release 42m bbl of emergency oil stocks over three months, half of it diesel, the most direct relief yet for its record diesel prices. A tanker was left burning and largely submerged off Oman, while a US approach to Tehran pulled Brent back towards $114. This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source. In this episode: - Europe to release 42m bbl - Tanker sinking off Oman after projectile strike - Brent slips on Vance outreach - Record refining margins show up in Q3 profits - Qatar adds a 20-year US LNG supply - Russian diesel tanker now tracked to New York for 7 November - Boxship sunk off Bulgaria Full written brief: https://github.com/jaimeam/the-spread/blob/main/briefs/2026-10-30-public.md Sources: - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Europe-to-Release-42-Million-Barrels-of-Oil.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/france_says_europe_set_to_release_42mm_barrels_of_oil-29-oct-2026-184963-article/?rss=true - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/EU-Scrambles-to-Contain-Energy-Price-Crisis-Ahead-of-Winter.html - Splash247: https://splash247.com/tanker-feared-sinking-off-oman-after-reported-projectile-strike/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Exxon-Chevron-Executives-Cancel-Gulf-Visit-Over-Security-Concerns.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Fall-as-Vance-Moves-to-Restart-Iran-Peace-Talks.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_wavers_on_conflicting_reports_of_usa_military_moves-29-oct-2026-184969-article/?rss=true - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Shell-Profits-Nearly-Double-to-108-Billion-as-Refining-Margins-Hit-Record.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/TotalEnergies-Profit-Doubles-as-War-Boosts-Refining-and-Trading.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/phillips_66_delivers_profit_above_expectations-29-oct-2026-184966-article/?rss=true - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Sinopec-Third-Quarter-Profit-Jumps-64-as-Oil-Prices-Climb.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Iran-War-Hikes-EUs-Oil-Import-Bill-By-11-Billion-Per-Month.html - Offshore Energy: https://offshore-energy.biz/2026/10/29/qatarenergy-locks-in-more-us-lng-through-20-year-deal-with-woodside - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/qatarenergy-continues-lng-buying-spree-to-hedge-future-hormuz-disruptions/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/cheniere-lng-shipments-surge-as-iran-war-reshapes-global-gas-trade/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Trumps-Russian-Diesel-Is-a-Legal-Hot-Potato-With-a-Five-Year-Fuse.html - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/greek-containership-sunk-by-naval-drones-off-bulgaria-as-black-sea-attacks-escalate/ - Splash247: https://splash247.com/drone-hit-boxship-sinks-off-bulgaria/ Europe plans to release 42m bbl of emergency oil stocks over three months, half of it diesel, the most direct relief yet for its record diesel prices. A tanker was left burning and largely submerged off Oman, while a US approach to Tehran pulled Brent back towards $114.

This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source.

In this episode

  • Europe to release 42m bbl
  • Tanker sinking off Oman after projectile strike
  • Brent slips on Vance outreach
  • Record refining margins show up in Q3 profits
  • Qatar adds a 20-year US LNG supply
  • Russian diesel tanker now tracked to New York for 7 November
  • Boxship sunk off Bulgaria

Read the full written brief

Sources

Europe to release 42m bbl

Tanker sinking off Oman after projectile strike

Brent slips on Vance outreach

Record refining margins show up in Q3 profits

Qatar adds a 20-year US LNG supply

Russian diesel tanker now tracked to New York for 7 November

Boxship sunk off Bulgaria

]]> the-spread-2026-10-30 Fri, 30 Oct 2026 06:00:00 +0000 6:50 false full Qatar LNG halt to year-end; Diesel tanker for NY idles | 29 Oct Qatar has extended its LNG force majeure to the end of the year, so Europe and Asia head into winter without Qatari term cargoes. The first Russian diesel cargo bound for the US has dropped New York as its destination after lawmakers threatened legal action. This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source. In this episode: - Qatar LNG halt to year-end - Diesel tanker for NY idles - US warns ships off needless Hormuz runs - China pays up for Atlantic crude as Iranian barrels vanish - Gulf flow reads diverge; UBS lifts Brent - US crude stocks fall below five-year average Full written brief: https://github.com/jaimeam/the-spread/blob/main/briefs/2026-10-29-public.md Sources: - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/QatarEnergy-Extends-LNG-Force-Majeure-to-End-of-2026.html - LNG Industry: https://www.lngindustry.com/liquid-natural-gas/28102026/edison-qatarenergy-extends-force-majeure-until-the-end-of-december/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Indias-Record-LNG-Buying-Meets-Record-High-Prices.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/How-Trumps-Russian-Diesel-Could-End-Up-in-Cuba-Instead.html - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/u-s-senator-demands-russian-diesel-tanker-turn-around-as-legal-fight-escalates/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Lawmakers-Warn-Banks-Against-Trumps-Russian-Diesel-Deal.html - Splash247: https://splash247.com/sanctioned-russian-tankers-head-for-us-carrying-diesel/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/UBS-Data-Shows-Russian-Oil-Exports-Only-10-Below-Pre-War-Levels.html - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/us-tells-ships-to-avoid-unnecessary-transits-through-hormuz/ - Splash247: https://splash247.com/iran-singles-out-sinokor/ - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/iran_cracks_down_on_sinokor_tankers-28-oct-2026-184948-article/?rss=true - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_rises_with_iran_attack_report_israeli_election_in_focus-28-oct-2026-184958-article/?rss=true - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Traders-Brace-for-Iran-Escalation-After-US-Elections.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Peace-Talks-Wont-Save-Oil-Buyers-From-100-Plus-Oil.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Iran-Eyes-130-Oil-While-at-Least-50-Tankers-Sit-Stuck-in-the-Gulf.html - Kpler: https://www.kpler.com/blog/irans-oil-on-water-outside-the-blockade-zone-hits-zero-as-tehrans-trilemma-sharpens - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinas-Refiners-Turn-to-Africa-and-Brazil-Crude-as-Freight-Rates-Ease.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Sanctioned-Oil-Tankers-Find-a-Lucrative-New-Trade-in-the-Persian-Gulf.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/saudi_oil_exports_booming_despite_attacks-28-oct-2026-184954-article/?rss=true - Kpler: https://www.kpler.com/blog/iraqi-basrah-crude-exports-rebound-toward-3-00-mbd-in-october - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/UBS-Sees-110-Brent-by-Year-End-as-Gulf-Flows-Stay-Below-Prewar-Levels.html - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/scorpio-tankers-reports-181000-a-day-lr2-rates-as-middle-east-war-upends-oil-trade/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Bahri-Profit-Hits-136-Billion-as-the-World-Scrambles-for-Tankers.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Oil-Inventories-Fall-Again-As-Prices-Rise.html Qatar has extended its LNG force majeure to the end of the year, so Europe and Asia head into winter without Qatari term cargoes. The first Russian diesel cargo bound for the US has dropped New York as its destination after lawmakers threatened legal action.

This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source.

In this episode

  • Qatar LNG halt to year-end
  • Diesel tanker for NY idles
  • US warns ships off needless Hormuz runs
  • China pays up for Atlantic crude as Iranian barrels vanish
  • Gulf flow reads diverge; UBS lifts Brent
  • US crude stocks fall below five-year average

Read the full written brief

Sources

Qatar LNG halt to year-end

Diesel tanker for NY idles

US warns ships off needless Hormuz runs

China pays up for Atlantic crude as Iranian barrels vanish

Gulf flow reads diverge; UBS lifts Brent

US crude stocks fall below five-year average

]]> the-spread-2026-10-29 Thu, 29 Oct 2026 06:00:00 +0000 6:47 false full Ras Tanura fire contained; Russia swaps crude for diesel | 28 Oct Saudi Arabia contained a fire near Ras Tanura, its biggest export terminal, after a Houthi missile and drone attack, and Brent firmed in early Asian trade. Aramco is also offering discounted spot crude to Europe from its Red Sea and Mediterranean outlets. This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source. In this episode: - Ras Tanura fire contained - Russia swaps crude for diesel - Aramco discounts crude to Europe - Iran threatens Sinokor tankers - OPEC+ seen holding December quotas - India squeezed by $123 basket - US stocks and deals Full written brief: https://github.com/jaimeam/the-spread/blob/main/briefs/2026-10-28-public.md Sources: - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Ras-Tanura-Fire-Follows-Attacks-on-Aramco-Offices-and-Near-Shaybah-Field.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/aramco_contains_fire_near_ras_tanura_oil_hub-27-oct-2026-184944-article/?rss=true - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/yemens-houthis-say-they-hit-saudi-ras-tanura-oil-refinery-with-missile/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Climb-as-Houthi-Attacks-Reignite-Saudi-Supply-Fears.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_slips_as_iran_diplomacy_picks_up-27-oct-2026-184947-article/?rss=true - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russias-Crude-Exports-Set-to-Fall-as-Diesel-Production-Rises.html - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/russia-ships-less-crude-even-as-key-baltic-ports-flows-rebound/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Diesel-Crisis-Is-Here-To-Stay.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/india_diesel_export_boom_set_to_ease_global_crunch-27-oct-2026-184943-article/?rss=true - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Aramco-Offers-Discounted-Oil-to-Europe-as-Exports-Recover.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/aramco_closes_in_on_10b_loan-27-oct-2026-184938-article/?rss=true - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/iran-says-it-will-take-action-against-sinokor-ships-in-hormuz/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Markets-Brace-for-a-New-Iran-Escalation-After-US-Midterms.html - Splash247: https://splash247.com/wall-street-splits-over-tanker-boom/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/OPEC-Set-to-Keep-Oil-Quotas-Unchanged.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Indias-Oil-Buyers-Squeezed-by-123-Crude-and-Weak-Rupee.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/India-Rejects-Claims-of-US-Pressure-Over-Russian-Oil-Purchases.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Diesel-Drives-Indias-Fuel-Export-Windfall-as-Earnings-Reach-126-Billion.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Crude-Oil-Inventories-Buck-Analyst-Expectations.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Investors-From-119-Countries-Pile-Into-Dangotes-Record-Refinery-IPO.html - World Oil: https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/10/27/totalenergies-completes-800-million-sale-of-renaissance-jv-oil-interest-in-nigeria-to-vaaris/ - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/eni_exits_nigerias_onshore_upstream_sector-27-oct-2026-184942-article/?rss=true - World Oil: https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/10/27/woodside-agrees-to-sell-greater-sunrise-stake-to-timor-gap-for-up-to-200-million/ Saudi Arabia contained a fire near Ras Tanura, its biggest export terminal, after a Houthi missile and drone attack, and Brent firmed in early Asian trade. Aramco is also offering discounted spot crude to Europe from its Red Sea and Mediterranean outlets.

This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source.

In this episode

  • Ras Tanura fire contained
  • Russia swaps crude for diesel
  • Aramco discounts crude to Europe
  • Iran threatens Sinokor tankers
  • OPEC+ seen holding December quotas
  • India squeezed by $123 basket
  • US stocks and deals

Read the full written brief

Sources

Ras Tanura fire contained

Russia swaps crude for diesel

Aramco discounts crude to Europe

Iran threatens Sinokor tankers

OPEC+ seen holding December quotas

India squeezed by $123 basket

US stocks and deals

]]> the-spread-2026-10-28 Wed, 28 Oct 2026 06:00:00 +0000 6:06 false full Houthis claim pipeline hits; India trims Russian crude | 27 Oct Yemen's Houthis claim strikes on pumping stations along Saudi Arabia's East-West crude pipeline, the main route for Gulf crude that avoids Hormuz, and Egypt has voted to help defend the kingdom. Oil eased from a six-month high as regional security chiefs flew to Tehran. Indian refiners are turning to Gulf barrels and away from Russia. This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source. In this episode: - Houthis claim pipeline hits - India trims Russian crude - Tanker disabled in the strait, October a record - Russian diesel output climbs for the US deal - LNG importers pay more for less; EU storage resumes injections - Gulf sulphur still constrained - EQT to buy Range Full written brief: https://github.com/jaimeam/the-spread/blob/main/briefs/2026-10-27-public.md Sources: - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Egypt-Votes-to-Defend-Saudi-Arabia-Risking-Houthi-Fire.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Indias-BPCL-to-Cut-Russian-Oil-Imports-Due-to-Higher-Prices.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/gulf_oil_bargains_lure_india_away_from_russia-26-oct-2026-184931-article/?rss=true - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/tanker-disabled-in-strait-of-hormuz-attack-another-vessel-reported-on-fire-in-persian-gulf/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/as-attacks-mount-shipping-faces-an-uncomfortable-question-are-safety-rules-fit-for-war/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/oil-spill-off-uae-widens-satellite-images-show-prompting-more-beach-closures/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/hormuz-chaos-sparks-legal-showdown-over-global-tanker-pricing/ - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_dips_from_6_month_high_as_officials_meet_in_tehran-26-oct-2026-184936-article/?rss=true - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/saudi_turkish_officials_travel_to_iran_to_cool_tensions-26-oct-2026-184926-article/?rss=true - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russian-Refiners-Ramp-Up-Diesel-Output-to-Supply-Trump-Deal.html - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/lawmakers-warn-u-s-ports-and-banks-over-trump-putin-russian-diesel-deal/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/The-Iran-War-Just-Added-39-Billion-to-the-Worlds-LNG-Bill.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Super-El-Nio-May-Soften-Winter-Energy-Squeeze.html - Kpler: https://www.kpler.com/blog/how-kpler-can-help-track-sulphur-supply-chain-associated-market-impacts - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/EQT-Bets-on-Record-US-Gas-Demand-With-50-Billion-Range-Takeover.html - World Oil: https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/10/26/eqt-range-combine-to-create-largest-u-s-natural-gas-producer/ - Link: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Beijing-Pushes-Domestic-Oil-Production-as-Iranian-Supply-Dries-Up.html - Link: https://www.rigzone.com/news/saudi_singapore_announce_oil_storage_deal-26-oct-2026-184928-article/?rss=true - Link: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Iran-War-Pushes-Trumps-Average-Gasoline-Prices-Above-Bidens.html - Link: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/UK-Weighs-Scrapping-Its-Largest-Untapped-Oilfield-With-Oil-Over-100.html Yemen's Houthis claim strikes on pumping stations along Saudi Arabia's East-West crude pipeline, the main route for Gulf crude that avoids Hormuz, and Egypt has voted to help defend the kingdom. Oil eased from a six-month high as regional security chiefs flew to Tehran. Indian refiners are turning to Gulf barrels and away from Russia.

This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source.

In this episode

  • Houthis claim pipeline hits
  • India trims Russian crude
  • Tanker disabled in the strait, October a record
  • Russian diesel output climbs for the US deal
  • LNG importers pay more for less; EU storage resumes injections
  • Gulf sulphur still constrained
  • EQT to buy Range

Read the full written brief

Sources

Houthis claim pipeline hits

India trims Russian crude

Tanker disabled in the strait, October a record

Russian diesel output climbs for the US deal

LNG importers pay more for less; EU storage resumes injections

Gulf sulphur still constrained

EQT to buy Range

Still developing

]]> the-spread-2026-10-27 Tue, 27 Oct 2026 06:00:00 +0000 6:00 false full $116 Brent despite Gulf flows; Freight walls off US crude | 26 Oct Brent ended last week above $116 after more attacks on Saudi Arabia, even though Middle East crude exports are now running above pre-war levels. Freight is the other squeeze: tanker costs are pricing US crude out of Asia and lifting fuel oil above crude in Singapore. This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source. In this episode: - $116 Brent despite Gulf flows - Freight walls off US crude - SPR exchange for Lake Charles - Russian diesel due in Norfolk 2 November - EU gas storage stalls at 74.6% - Black Sea cargo ships hit Full written brief: https://github.com/jaimeam/the-spread/blob/main/briefs/2026-10-26-public.md Sources: - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/brent_tops_116_as_middle_east_risks_grow-23-oct-2026-184925-article/?rss=true - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_hits_114_intraday-23-oct-2026-184913-article/?rss=true - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Prices-Rise-Despite-Middle-East-Export-Recovery.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/physical_oil_prices_drop_in_mideast-23-oct-2026-184922-article/?rss=true - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/uae-shuts-all-beaches-as-neighbors-grapple-with-oil-spill/ - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/global_crude_freight_rate_surges-23-oct-2026-184916-article/?rss=true - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Record-Tanker-Rates-Cripple-US-Crude-Oil-Flows-to-Asia.html - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/record-tanker-rates-threaten-to-push-u-s-oil-exports-to-asia-to-seven-year-low/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Fuel-Oil-Becomes-Asias-Next-Cost-Shock.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Dips-Into-Strategic-Oil-Reserve-Again-Amid-Supply-Disruptions.html - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/rare-russian-diesel-shipment-expected-to-arrive-in-norfolk-on-november-2/ - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/eu_diesel_jet_fuel_supplies_remain_tight-23-oct-2026-184915-article/?rss=true - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/germany_wants_to_stop_more_oil_refinery_closures-24-oct-2026-184919-article/?rss=true - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/uk_seen_more_reliant_on_gas_imports_this_winter-25-oct-2026-184923-article/?rss=true - World Oil: https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/10/23/nsta-uk-2p-reserves-fall-to-2-5-bboe-as-no-exploration-wells-were-drilled-in-2025/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/romania-blames-russia-for-drone-that-sinks-cargo-ship-1-killed-3-missing/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/russia-says-it-hit-two-cargo-vessels-and-ukrainian-logistics-hubs/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/ustr-proposes-extending-china-ship-port-fee-suspension-through-january-2027/ Brent ended last week above $116 after more attacks on Saudi Arabia, even though Middle East crude exports are now running above pre-war levels. Freight is the other squeeze: tanker costs are pricing US crude out of Asia and lifting fuel oil above crude in Singapore.

This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source.

In this episode

  • $116 Brent despite Gulf flows
  • Freight walls off US crude
  • SPR exchange for Lake Charles
  • Russian diesel due in Norfolk 2 November
  • EU gas storage stalls at 74.6%
  • Black Sea cargo ships hit

Read the full written brief

Sources

$116 Brent despite Gulf flows

Freight walls off US crude

SPR exchange for Lake Charles

Russian diesel due in Norfolk 2 November

EU gas storage stalls at 74.6%

Black Sea cargo ships hit

Still developing

]]> the-spread-2026-10-26 Mon, 26 Oct 2026 06:00:00 +0000 5:52 false full Oil jumps 4% on Saudi attacks; Iran claims seven ships hit | 23 Oct Oil jumped about 4% after deadly attacks in Saudi Arabia, and Iran claimed seven more vessels hit in the Gulf, four of them mid-transfer. Freight is now the binding constraint on both crude and diesel, shutting US diesel exports to Europe. This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source. In this episode: - Oil jumps 4% on Saudi attacks - Iran claims seven ships hit - Freight shuts US diesel out of Europe - Qatar signs to buy US LNG - China's buffers thin out Full written brief: https://github.com/jaimeam/the-spread/blob/main/briefs/2026-10-23-public.md Sources: - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_surges_4_after_deadly_saudi_attacks-22-oct-2026-184912-article/?rss=true - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Citis-60-Oil-Call-Meets-112-Brent.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/saudi_aramco_evacuates_hq-22-oct-2026-184909-article/?rss=true - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/saudi-arabia-seeks-access-to-overseas-oil-storage-for-aramco/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/iran-claims-more-ships-struck-near-hormuz-as-trump-accuses-tehran-of-faking-hits/ - Splash247: https://splash247.com/iran-claims-seven-vessels-hit-in-new-wave-of-hormuz-attacks/ - Kpler: https://www.kpler.com/blog/us-reopening-quickly-fades-as-freight-climbs - EIA: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68344 - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/qatarenergy-signs-long-term-deal-to-buy-u-s-lng-as-iran-war-disrupts-exports/ - Splash247: https://splash247.com/a-new-world-order-emerges-in-lng-shipping/ - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/chinas_petrochemicals_glut_turns_to_crunch-22-oct-2026-184910-article/?rss=true - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Rising-Crude-Oil-Imports-Reduce-Chinas-Need-to-Draw-from-Stocks.html Oil jumped about 4% after deadly attacks in Saudi Arabia, and Iran claimed seven more vessels hit in the Gulf, four of them mid-transfer. Freight is now the binding constraint on both crude and diesel, shutting US diesel exports to Europe.

This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source.

In this episode

  • Oil jumps 4% on Saudi attacks
  • Iran claims seven ships hit
  • Freight shuts US diesel out of Europe
  • Qatar signs to buy US LNG
  • China's buffers thin out

Read the full written brief

Sources

Oil jumps 4% on Saudi attacks

Iran claims seven ships hit

Freight shuts US diesel out of Europe

Qatar signs to buy US LNG

China's buffers thin out

]]> the-spread-2026-10-23 Fri, 23 Oct 2026 06:00:00 +0000 4:52 false full Hormuz: two more tankers hit as Gulf crude keeps flowing | 22 Oct Two more tankers were hit in the Gulf and a drone killed two people at Saudi Arabia's Shaybah field, yet Middle East crude is still moving close to pre-war volumes. Freight, not supply, is now the binding constraint, both for Gulf barrels to Asia and for US diesel to Europe. This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source. In this episode: - Hormuz: two more tankers hit as Gulf crude keeps flowing - Shaybah drone strike kills two, output unaffected - US diesel: freight shuts the Europe arb as stocks build - Iran sanctions: new designations alongside unpublished licences - European gas: storage dips, Jackdaw approved Full written brief: https://github.com/jaimeam/the-spread/blob/main/briefs/2026-10-22-public.md Sources: - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/two-more-tankers-struck-as-maritime-attacks-spread-across-persian-gulf/ - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/iran_intensifies_strikes_on_ships-21-oct-2026-184891-article/?rss=true - gCaptain/Bloomberg: https://gcaptain.com/middle-east-oil-flows-near-prewar-levels-defy-hormuz-attacks/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Higher-Oil-Availability-Pressures-Middle-East-Crude-Benchmarks.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Crude-Exports-Hit-Five-Month-High-as-Production-Falls-to-Record-Low.html - Kpler: https://www.kpler.com/blog/chinese-refiners-step-up-middle-east-crude-buying-amid-record-stock-drawdowns - gCaptain/IEA: https://gcaptain.com/iea-gulf-oil-shipping-costs-top-37-per-barrel-five-times-pre-war-levels/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Indias-Top-State-Refiner-to-Reduce-Middle-East-Term-Oil-Purchases.html - World Oil: https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/10/21/drone-strike-on-aramco-s-shaybah-field-kills-two/ - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_gains_after_saudi_oil_field_attack-21-oct-2026-184901-article/?rss=true - EIA: https://www.eia.gov - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/EIA-Says-US-Crude-Inventories-Sink-Further.html - Kpler: https://www.kpler.com/blog/diesel-arbitrage-why-freight-has-shut-the-europe-import-window - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/usa_to_tap_national_diesel_reserve-21-oct-2026-184897-article/?rss=true - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/russia-sees-first-diesel-cargo-sailing-for-us-on-thursday/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/u-s-sanctions-law-firm-shipping-agents-and-nine-vessels-in-iran-shadow-fleet-crackdown/ - OFAC: https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261021 - Kpler: https://www.kpler.com/blog/shadow-fleet-sanctions-relief-wont-solve-the-tanker-crisis - GIE AGSI: https://agsi.gie.eu - World Oil: https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/10/21/uk-approves-jackdaw-gas-field-with-first-gas-expected-this-month/ - UK DESNZ: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/jackdaw-gas-field-gets-green-light - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/macron_says_france_to_get_lng_supplies_from_qatar_in_winter-21-oct-2026-184899-article/?rss=true - Splash247: https://splash247.com/woodside-resumes-scarborough-work-after-greenpeace-protest/ - World Oil: https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/10/21/woodside-s-scarborough-hits-99-complete-first-lng-on-track-for-q4/ - Splash247: https://splash247.com/nato-boosts-black-sea-surveillance-amid-attacks-on-shipping/ Two more tankers were hit in the Gulf and a drone killed two people at Saudi Arabia's Shaybah field, yet Middle East crude is still moving close to pre-war volumes. Freight, not supply, is now the binding constraint, both for Gulf barrels to Asia and for US diesel to Europe.

This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source.

In this episode

  • Hormuz: two more tankers hit as Gulf crude keeps flowing
  • Shaybah drone strike kills two, output unaffected
  • US diesel: freight shuts the Europe arb as stocks build
  • Iran sanctions: new designations alongside unpublished licences
  • European gas: storage dips, Jackdaw approved

Read the full written brief

Sources

Hormuz: two more tankers hit as Gulf crude keeps flowing

Shaybah drone strike kills two, output unaffected

US diesel: freight shuts the Europe arb as stocks build

Iran sanctions: new designations alongside unpublished licences

European gas: storage dips, Jackdaw approved

Still developing

]]> the-spread-2026-10-22 Thu, 22 Oct 2026 06:00:00 +0000 6:26 false full Hormuz: engine-room hits and $1m-a-day VLCCs | 21 Oct Iranian strikes in the Gulf are doing heavier damage to ships, and VLCC spot rates have passed $1m a day, so producers are cutting prices to keep buyers. In Europe, a sharp drop in Norwegian gas output and a near-stall in storage injections tighten an already thin winter balance. This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source. In this episode: - Hormuz: engine-room hits and $1m-a-day VLCCs - Crude eases on Iran talk headlines; Asian LNG hits a 2022 high - Europe gas: Norway output falls 12.6%, storage barely moves - Shadow-fleet plan takes shape: sell, refurbish, re-flag into legal trade - Russia: seaborne crude exports at lowest weekly level since March - US: API shows another crude draw; Citgo cashes in on margins Full written brief: https://github.com/jaimeam/the-spread/blob/main/briefs/2026-10-21-public.md Sources: - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/iran-strikes-more-ship-engine-rooms-in-ramp-up-of-hormuz-attacks/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/iran-claims-more-tankers-hit-mines-in-hormuz-but-evidence-remains-elusive/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Petrobras-Deepwater-Push-Sets-Off-a-Race-for-Offshore-Vessels.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_slips_as_iran_talks_fuel_volatility-20-oct-2026-184889-article/?rss=true - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Next-Major-Oil-Supply-Shock-Could-Come-From-Saudi-Arabia.html - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/iran-prolongs-talks-in-stalemate-to-influence-us-midterms/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Gas-Production-Plunges-126-as-Europe-Heads-into-Winter.html - GIE AGSI: https://agsi.gie.eu/ - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/equinor_scales_down_troll_electrification_program-20-oct-2026-184888-article/?rss=true - World Oil: https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/10/20/eni-advances-meleiha-phase-2-gas-development-in-egypt-s-western-desert/ - Splash247: https://splash247.com/us-moves-to-legitimise-shadow-tanker-fleet/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/trumps-plan-to-revive-sanctioned-tankers-faces-tough-sell/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russias-Oil-Export-Revenue-Slides-as-Production-Declines.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/API-Crude-Products-Continu-eto-Draw.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/citgo_raises_profit_outlook_by_2b-20-oct-2026-184884-article/?rss=true - BSEE: https://www.bsee.gov/deepwater-activity-weekly-report-10202026 Iranian strikes in the Gulf are doing heavier damage to ships, and VLCC spot rates have passed $1m a day, so producers are cutting prices to keep buyers. In Europe, a sharp drop in Norwegian gas output and a near-stall in storage injections tighten an already thin winter balance.

This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source.

In this episode

  • Hormuz: engine-room hits and $1m-a-day VLCCs
  • Crude eases on Iran talk headlines; Asian LNG hits a 2022 high
  • Europe gas: Norway output falls 12.6%, storage barely moves
  • Shadow-fleet plan takes shape: sell, refurbish, re-flag into legal trade
  • Russia: seaborne crude exports at lowest weekly level since March
  • US: API shows another crude draw; Citgo cashes in on margins

Read the full written brief

Sources

Hormuz: engine-room hits and $1m-a-day VLCCs

Crude eases on Iran talk headlines; Asian LNG hits a 2022 high

Europe gas: Norway output falls 12.6%, storage barely moves

Shadow-fleet plan takes shape: sell, refurbish, re-flag into legal trade

Russia: seaborne crude exports at lowest weekly level since March

US: API shows another crude draw; Citgo cashes in on margins

Still developing

]]> the-spread-2026-10-21 Wed, 21 Oct 2026 06:00:00 +0000 6:17 false full Iran's terminals idle as Iraq nears pre-war exports | 20 Oct Iran's main oil terminals have stood empty for weeks under a US naval blockade, while Iraq says its exports are back near pre-war levels. Washington also says it will let sanctioned dark-fleet tankers be sold back into legitimate trade as tanker earnings hit records. This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source. In this episode: - Iran's terminals idle as Iraq nears pre-war exports - US to let dark-fleet tankers shed sanctions - Brent stalls just under $110 - Russia: Graham sanctions waived, diesel deal defended - Qatari LNG takes the Red Sea to Europe - Hormuz knock-ons: sulfur and importers Full written brief: https://github.com/jaimeam/the-spread/blob/main/briefs/2026-10-20-public.md Sources: - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/irans-main-oil-terminals-remain-empty-as-us-blockade-bites/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Iraqs-October-Oil-Exports-Top-34-Million-Bpd-Nearing-Pre-War-Levels.html - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/u-s-to-allow-dark-fleet-tankers-to-shed-sanctions-wright-says/ - Splash247: https://splash247.com/tanker-earnings-defy-all-historical-comparisons/ - Kpler: https://www.kpler.com/blog/increased-strait-of-hormuz-attacks-hamper-growing-lpg-shuttle-trade - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Gas-Prices/Wright-Says-Gas-Prices-Peaked-As-Brent-Holds-Above-108.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_prices_hover_near_fivemonth_high-19-oct-2026-184878-article/?rss=true - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-Canadian-Oil-Is-Lagging-Even-As-Global-Crude-Soars.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/eia_sees_smaller_oil_crunch_in_2026-19-oct-2026-184874-article/?rss=true - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Europe/Trump-Defends-Russia-Sanctions-Waiver-as-Rift-With-Ukraine-Deepens.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/trump_says_diesel_deal_aims_to_keep_russia_talks_going-19-oct-2026-184873-article/?rss=true - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Whats-Trumps-Thinking-Behind-The-Diesel-Deal-With-Russia.html - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/russian-oil-exports-by-arctic-route-jump-amid-world-freight-crisis/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/qatar-lng-cargo-makes-rare-red-sea-journey-to-get-gas-to-europe/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Sulfur-Crisis-Threatening-the-Worlds-Food-Supply.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Pakistans-Growth-Slows-as-Hormuz-Crisis-Hits-Industry.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Canadas-Inflation-Rises-to-31-as-Fuel-Oil-Prices-Jump-58.html - World Oil: https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/10/19/aker-bp-s-skarv-satellites-officially-start-up-adding-120-mmboe-in-norwegian-sea/ - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/north_america_breaks_rig_count_addition_streak_bh_shows-19-oct-2026-184876-article/?rss=true Iran's main oil terminals have stood empty for weeks under a US naval blockade, while Iraq says its exports are back near pre-war levels. Washington also says it will let sanctioned dark-fleet tankers be sold back into legitimate trade as tanker earnings hit records.

This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source.

In this episode

  • Iran's terminals idle as Iraq nears pre-war exports
  • US to let dark-fleet tankers shed sanctions
  • Brent stalls just under $110
  • Russia: Graham sanctions waived, diesel deal defended
  • Qatari LNG takes the Red Sea to Europe
  • Hormuz knock-ons: sulfur and importers

Read the full written brief

Sources

Iran's terminals idle as Iraq nears pre-war exports

US to let dark-fleet tankers shed sanctions

Brent stalls just under $110

Russia: Graham sanctions waived, diesel deal defended

Qatari LNG takes the Red Sea to Europe

Hormuz knock-ons: sulfur and importers

Still developing

]]> the-spread-2026-10-20 Tue, 20 Oct 2026 06:00:00 +0000 5:25 false full Brent reaches $110 on Houthi and Russia-Ukraine strikes | 19 Oct Brent touched $110 for the first time since May as Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia and Russia-Ukraine energy attacks added risk premium. Over the weekend, Iran said two tankers hit mines in Hormuz and repeated its offer to reopen the strait. This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source. In this episode: - Brent reaches $110 on Houthi and Russia-Ukraine strikes - Hormuz: Iran says two tankers mined, repeats reopening offer - Stock releases: IEA commits the last 100m bbl, US offers 17m more - Russian diesel deal gains a buyer: Turkey - Gas: EU storage gains pace; Scarborough LNG paused Full written brief: https://github.com/jaimeam/the-spread/blob/main/briefs/2026-10-19-public.md Sources: - World Oil: https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/10/16/oil-hits-110-as-houthi-strikes-russia-ukraine-attacks-lift-supply-fears/ - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/brent_oil_hits_110_as_supply_risks_mount-16-oct-2026-184870-article/?rss=true - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Prices-Stay-High-as-War-Keeps-Supply-Tight-Into-2027.html - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/irans-guards-say-two-tankers-hit-mines-in-strait-of-hormuz/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/iran-urges-us-to-accept-proposal-to-reopen-strait-of-hormuz/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/fog-of-war-deepens-in-hormuz-as-ukmto-says-most-ship-attacks-go-unreported/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Record-Shipping-Costs-Force-Oil-Producers-to-Slash-Prices.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Hormuz-Is-Turning-Shippings-Fuel-Bill-Into-a-Supply-Crisis.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/iea_agrees_to_release_of_outstanding_100mm_oil_barrels-16-oct-2026-184865-article/?rss=true - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Offers-Another-17-Million-SPR-Barrels-as-Fuel-Crisis-Deepens.html - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/turkey-will-get-some-diesel-from-us-russia-supply-deal/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/romanian-fighter-jets-shoot-down-two-drones-over-territorial-waters/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/ukraine-talks-with-turkey-india-egypt-over-grain-corridor/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Europe-Braces-for-a-Winter-Energy-Crisis-as-Gas-Reserves-Run-Low.html - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/natural-gas-project-paused-after-greenpeace-protest-off-western-australia/ - World Oil: https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/10/18/woodside-pauses-scarborough-lng-pre-commissioning-amid-greenpeace-protest/ - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/china_builds_gas_buffer_for_winter-16-oct-2026-184861-article/?rss=true - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/opec_meets_on_sidelines_of_saudi_conference-16-oct-2026-184863-article/?rss=true - OFAC: https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261016 - World Oil: https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/10/18/venezuela-expects-76-billion-in-oil-and-gas-investment-over-five-years/ - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oe_says_india_may_raise_fuel_prices_in_november-18-oct-2026-184868-article/?rss=true - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/international-seaways-adds-to-vlcc-fleet-with-370-million-bruton-deal/ Brent touched $110 for the first time since May as Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia and Russia-Ukraine energy attacks added risk premium. Over the weekend, Iran said two tankers hit mines in Hormuz and repeated its offer to reopen the strait.

This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source.

In this episode

  • Brent reaches $110 on Houthi and Russia-Ukraine strikes
  • Hormuz: Iran says two tankers mined, repeats reopening offer
  • Stock releases: IEA commits the last 100m bbl, US offers 17m more
  • Russian diesel deal gains a buyer: Turkey
  • Gas: EU storage gains pace; Scarborough LNG paused

Read the full written brief

Sources

Brent reaches $110 on Houthi and Russia-Ukraine strikes

Hormuz: Iran says two tankers mined, repeats reopening offer

Stock releases: IEA commits the last 100m bbl, US offers 17m more

Russian diesel deal gains a buyer: Turkey

Gas: EU storage gains pace; Scarborough LNG paused

Also noted

]]> the-spread-2026-10-19 Mon, 19 Oct 2026 06:00:00 +0000 6:11 false full IEA rushes diesel, US pushes for more | 16 Oct The IEA is rushing more than 20 million barrels of diesel to market, and Washington is weighing relief for shadow-fleet tankers to cool record freight. Ukraine's strike on Russia's Ryazan refinery ended Kyiv's pause on energy targets, so diesel remains the tightest part of the barrel. This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source. In this episode: - IEA rushes diesel, US pushes for more - Shadow-fleet relief floated as freight soars - Ryazan hit as Kyiv ends energy pause - US stocks: big crude and distillate draws - Hormuz: CENTCOM claims control - Black Sea: chemical tankers hit off Romania Full written brief: https://github.com/jaimeam/the-spread/blob/main/briefs/2026-10-16-public.md Sources: - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/IEA-Speeds-Emergency-Oil-Release.html - World Oil: https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/10/15/u-s-lobbies-iea-nations-for-larger-emergency-oil-stock-release/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Diesel-Crunch-Will-Persist-Well-into-2027.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/aramco_ceo_warns_oil_squeeze_is_serious-15-oct-2026-184859-article/?rss=true - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/trump-weighs-lifting-shadow-fleet-sanctions-as-tanker-rates-soar/ - Splash247: https://splash247.com/us-shadow-fleet-proposal-sparks-tanker-stock-rout/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/oil-shipping-costs-spike-lifting-prices-from-pump-to-grocery/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/uk-tightens-russian-oil-sanctions-as-u-s-weighs-relief/ - OFAC: https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261015 - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Standard-Chartered-Trumps-Russian-Diesel-Wont-Add-New-Supply.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_prices_diverge_as_supply_risks_mount-15-oct-2026-184860-article/?rss=true - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Ukraine-Strikes-Major-Russian-Oil-Refinery.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Standard-Chartered-Trumps-Russian-Diesel-Wont-Add-New-Supply.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Bulgaria-Breaks-Ranks-With-EU-Over-Trump-Putin-Diesel-Deal.html - EIA via OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/EIA-Says-US-Crude-Inventories-Down-Nearly-9-Million-Barrels.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/WTI-Outpaces-Brent-as-US-Crude-Draw-Ignites-Fresh-Buying.html - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/by-the-numbers-u-s-claims-control-of-hormuz-as-ship-attacks-hit-new-high/ - Splash247: https://splash247.com/hormuz-claims-two-more-ships-in-fresh-wave-of-strikes/ - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/container_ship_sinks_in_strait_of_hormuz-15-oct-2026-184853-article/?rss=true - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Pakistan-Faces-Winter-Gas-Shortages-if-Hormuz-LNG-Remains-Choked.html - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/two-ships-ablaze-off-romanian-black-sea-coast-7-sailors-missing/ - Splash247: https://splash247.com/natos-black-sea-flank-on-alert-after-series-of-attacks/ - GIE AGSI: https://agsi.gie.eu - World Oil: https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/10/15/equinor-scales-back-troll-electrification-to-protect-gas-output/ The IEA is rushing more than 20 million barrels of diesel to market, and Washington is weighing relief for shadow-fleet tankers to cool record freight. Ukraine's strike on Russia's Ryazan refinery ended Kyiv's pause on energy targets, so diesel remains the tightest part of the barrel.

This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source.

In this episode

  • IEA rushes diesel, US pushes for more
  • Shadow-fleet relief floated as freight soars
  • Ryazan hit as Kyiv ends energy pause
  • US stocks: big crude and distillate draws
  • Hormuz: CENTCOM claims control
  • Black Sea: chemical tankers hit off Romania

Read the full written brief

Sources

IEA rushes diesel, US pushes for more

Shadow-fleet relief floated as freight soars

Ryazan hit as Kyiv ends energy pause

US stocks: big crude and distillate draws

Hormuz: CENTCOM claims control

Black Sea: chemical tankers hit off Romania

Still developing

]]> the-spread-2026-10-16 Fri, 16 Oct 2026 06:00:00 +0000 6:10 false full Hormuz: container ship and bulker sink | 15 Oct Two ships have sunk near the Strait of Hormuz and Brent is back above $106, as attacks keep undoing the partial recovery in Gulf loadings. Saudi Arabia now acknowledges a fire at Aramco's Dhahran headquarters, and the Houthis say more strikes on oil sites are coming. This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source. In this episode: - Hormuz: container ship and bulker sink - Houthis threaten more Saudi oil strikes after Aramco HQ fire - US diesel: Europe arb reopens, White House reaches for DPA - Gas: South Asian demand destruction, storage creeps up - Russia: Moscow backs diesel deal, strikes Ukrainian power plants Full written brief: https://github.com/jaimeam/the-spread/blob/main/briefs/2026-10-15-public.md Sources: - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/containership-sinks-as-hormuz-attacks-spiral-out-of-control/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/bulk-carrier-sinks-weeks-after-deadly-strait-of-hormuz-strike/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Ship-Sinks-in-Strait-of-Hormuz-as-Iran-Escalates-Maritime-Attacks.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Market-Tightens-as-Tanker-Attacks-and-Inventory-Draws-Mount.html - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/u-s-forces-destroy-iranian-linked-dhow-accused-of-targeting-navy-ships/ - Kpler: https://www.kpler.com/blog/seven-months-on-2-bn-bbl-lost-5-mbd-still-offline-and-no-deal-in-sight-1 - World Oil: https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/10/14/uae-oil-output-hits-record-5-3-mmbpd-in-september-iea-says/ - Splash247: https://splash247.com/japan-prepares-to-pay-for-oils-long-way-round/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Houthis-Vow-More-Attacks-After-Strike-on-Aramco-Headquarters.html - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/yemens-houthis-vow-more-attacks-on-saudi-airports-oil-facilities-after-aramco-hq-hit/ - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/aramco_hq_hit_as_houthis_escalate_attacks-14-oct-2026-184842-article/?rss=true - Kpler: https://www.kpler.com/blog/us-to-nwe-reopens-eyes-fixed-on-new-supply - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/White-House-Turns-to-Korean-War-Era-Law-as-Diesel-Prices-Stay-Above-6.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Crude-Oil-Inventories-See-Massive-Drop-Off.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Indias-Gas-Demand-Drops-as-Iran-War-Hikes-LNG-Spot-Prices.html - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/qatar-rewrites-its-gas-playbook-with-old-tankers-and-new-tactics/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/trump-touts-taiwan-alaska-lng-deal-taipei-hasnt-finalized/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Novak-Calls-US-Diesel-Deal-a-Positive-Signal-for-Russias-Economy.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/russia_hits_ukraine_energy_plants-14-oct-2026-184847-article/?rss=true - BSEE: https://www.bsee.gov/newsroom/latest-news/statements-and-releases/press-releases/mma-monitors-gulf-response-isaias8 - OFAC: https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261014 - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/aramcos_new_china_refinery_venture_gets_1st_crude_cargo-14-oct-2026-184848-article/?rss=true Two ships have sunk near the Strait of Hormuz and Brent is back above $106, as attacks keep undoing the partial recovery in Gulf loadings. Saudi Arabia now acknowledges a fire at Aramco's Dhahran headquarters, and the Houthis say more strikes on oil sites are coming.

This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source.

In this episode

  • Hormuz: container ship and bulker sink
  • Houthis threaten more Saudi oil strikes after Aramco HQ fire
  • US diesel: Europe arb reopens, White House reaches for DPA
  • Gas: South Asian demand destruction, storage creeps up
  • Russia: Moscow backs diesel deal, strikes Ukrainian power plants

Read the full written brief

Sources

Hormuz: container ship and bulker sink

Houthis threaten more Saudi oil strikes after Aramco HQ fire

US diesel: Europe arb reopens, White House reaches for DPA

Gas: South Asian demand destruction, storage creeps up

Russia: Moscow backs diesel deal, strikes Ukrainian power plants

Still developing

]]> the-spread-2026-10-15 Thu, 15 Oct 2026 06:00:00 +0000 6:30 false full Houthi strike hits Aramco's Dhahran headquarters | 14 Oct A Houthi missile attack reportedly hit Saudi Aramco's Dhahran headquarters, and Riyadh struck back at Sanaa, taking the Saudi-Houthi war into the kingdom's oil heartland. In the Gulf, empty supertankers are steering away from a key transfer hub while Japanese buyers return to load crude by ship-to-ship transfer outside Hormuz. This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source. In this episode: - Houthi strike hits Aramco's Dhahran headquarters - Gulf loading: VLCCs turn away, Japan returns via STS - EU storage gains slow - Isaias: Gulf platforms evacuated, inspection notice issued - Black Sea: ship sunk off Bulgaria, 11 missing - Demand side: China imports recover, OPEC goes big on 2027 Full written brief: https://github.com/jaimeam/the-spread/blob/main/briefs/2026-10-14-public.md Sources: - World Oil: https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/10/13/aramco-s-dhahran-headquarters-hit-during-houthi-missile-attack-on-saudi-arabia/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/saudi-arabia-strikes-houthi-targets-as-red-sea-war-escalates/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Saudi-Arabia-Becomes-the-Oil-Markets-Biggest-Wild-Card.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/brent_steady_amid_middle_east_tensions-13-oct-2026-184841-article/?rss=true - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/saudis_tell_opec_that_oil_output_recovered_from_3_decade_low-13-oct-2026-184837-article/?rss=true - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/supertankers-turn-from-gulf-oil-transfer-hub-amid-irans-attacks/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Japanese-Refiners-Buy-Middle-East-Crude-Through-Ship-to-Ship-Transfers.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/oil_carriers_linked_to_japan_return_to_mideast-13-oct-2026-184831-article/?rss=true - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Record-Tanker-Rates-Leave-Heavy-Crude-Stranded-in-the-Americas.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Stranded-Middle-East-LNG-Supply-Upends-Gas-Markets.html - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/equinor_bags_new_contract_to_supply_dutch_with_norwegian_gas-13-oct-2026-184840-article/?rss=true - BSEE: https://www.bsee.gov/newsroom/latest-news/statements-and-releases/press-releases/mma-monitors-gulf-response-isaias7 - BSEE: https://www.bsee.gov/notices-to-lessees-ntl/ntl-no-2026-g03 - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/11-missing-as-drone-attacks-strike-two-ships-near-nato-waters/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/bulgaria-points-to-russia-as-drones-hit-more-cargo-ships/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/france-seizes-another-shadow-fleet-tanker-russia-decries-piracy/ - Splash247: https://splash247.com/sweden-frees-sanctioned-tanker-after-seven-months/ - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/chinese_refiners_to_slow_inventory_drawdowns-13-oct-2026-184836-article/?rss=true - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/OPEC-Sees-Oil-Demand-Growth-Surging-to-26-Million-Bpd-in-2027.html - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/trumps-diesel-deal-irks-allies-and-is-unlikely-to-reduce-prices/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Saudi-Arabia-Becomes-the-Oil-Markets-Biggest-Wild-Card.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Guyana-Oil-Exports-Set-to-Surpass-1-Million-Barrels-per-Day-for-First-Time.html - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Dangote-Swings-to-47-Billion-Profit-Ahead-of-Africas-Biggest-IPO.html A Houthi missile attack reportedly hit Saudi Aramco's Dhahran headquarters, and Riyadh struck back at Sanaa, taking the Saudi-Houthi war into the kingdom's oil heartland. In the Gulf, empty supertankers are steering away from a key transfer hub while Japanese buyers return to load crude by ship-to-ship transfer outside Hormuz.

This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source.

In this episode

  • Houthi strike hits Aramco's Dhahran headquarters
  • Gulf loading: VLCCs turn away, Japan returns via STS
  • EU storage gains slow
  • Isaias: Gulf platforms evacuated, inspection notice issued
  • Black Sea: ship sunk off Bulgaria, 11 missing
  • Demand side: China imports recover, OPEC goes big on 2027

Read the full written brief

Sources

Houthi strike hits Aramco's Dhahran headquarters

Gulf loading: VLCCs turn away, Japan returns via STS

EU storage gains slow

Isaias: Gulf platforms evacuated, inspection notice issued

Black Sea: ship sunk off Bulgaria, 11 missing

Demand side: China imports recover, OPEC goes big on 2027

Still developing

]]> the-spread-2026-10-14 Wed, 14 Oct 2026 06:00:00 +0000 6:18 false full Hormuz: 11 October count revised to six ships hit | 13 Oct A fuller count shows six merchant ships were hit around Hormuz on 11 October, and Gulf LNG flows remain far below pre-war levels as winter demand builds. Freight costs are also stranding heavy crude in the Americas, and Houthi strikes on Riyadh raise the risk of a wider war. This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source. In this episode: - Hormuz: 11 October count revised to six ships hit - Gulf LNG still down over 75%, Asia outbids Europe - Freight spike strands heavy crude in the Americas - Houthis strike Riyadh airport Full written brief: https://github.com/jaimeam/the-spread/blob/main/briefs/2026-10-13-public.md Sources: - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/new-reports-reveal-five-more-ships-hit-near-hormuz/ - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/brent_tops_106_as_supply_risks_intensify-12-oct-2026-184830-article/?rss=true - Splash247: https://splash247.com/britain-urges-ships-to-prepare-for-life-without-reliable-gps/ - OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Global-Coal-Demand-Rises-as-LNG-Shortage-Deepens.html - GIE AGSI: https://agsi.gie.eu/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/soaring-tanker-rates-leave-americas-awash-in-crude-oil/ - EIA: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/ - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/deadly-attacks-on-saudi-arabia-risk-wider-war-that-draws-in-us/ - Rigzone: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/japan_urges_oil_stockpiling_development-12-oct-2026-184826-article/?rss=true - World Oil: https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/10/12/murphy-oil-reports-vietnam-oil-discovery-first-production-at-lac-da-vang/ A fuller count shows six merchant ships were hit around Hormuz on 11 October, and Gulf LNG flows remain far below pre-war levels as winter demand builds. Freight costs are also stranding heavy crude in the Americas, and Houthi strikes on Riyadh raise the risk of a wider war.

This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source.

In this episode

  • Hormuz: 11 October count revised to six ships hit
  • Gulf LNG still down over 75%, Asia outbids Europe
  • Freight spike strands heavy crude in the Americas
  • Houthis strike Riyadh airport

Read the full written brief

Sources

Hormuz: 11 October count revised to six ships hit

Gulf LNG still down over 75%, Asia outbids Europe

Freight spike strands heavy crude in the Americas

Houthis strike Riyadh airport

Also noted

]]> the-spread-2026-10-13 Tue, 13 Oct 2026 06:00:00 +0000 4:41 false full Gulf: attacks spread beyond the Strait | 12 Oct The Gulf tanker war widened over the weekend and crude rose. Brent hit $106.80, up $2.09, and WTI hit $93.78, up $1.93. Early Monday the Russia-Ukraine "energy ceasefire" had pulled prices lower, but the Middle East attacks outweighed it by the US session. European gas is at its highest since early 2023. This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source. In this episode: - Gulf: attacks spread beyond the Strait - Russia: Trump's "energy ceasefire" and diesel deal - European gas: TTF near €83 - US Gulf: Hurricane Isaias Full written brief: https://github.com/jaimeam/the-spread/blob/main/briefs/2026-10-12-public.md Sources: - OilPrice - prices: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Jump-2-on-Saudi-Attacks-as-OPEC-Sees-Demand-Rebound.html - Splash247: https://splash247.com/tanker-war-spreads-across-gulf/ - gCaptain - tankers: https://gcaptain.com/more-tankers-hit-in-hormuz-as-u-s-strikes-cargo-ship/ - gCaptain - blockade: https://gcaptain.com/us-says-it-disabled-cargo-vessel-trying-to-run-iran-blockade/ - gCaptain - Iran: https://gcaptain.com/iran-says-us-response-to-its-proposal-to-reopen-hormuz-was-insufficient/ - Rigzone - Saudi: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/saudi_says_energy_export_capability_intact-12-oct-2026-184820-article/?rss=true - gCaptain - pipelines: https://gcaptain.com/saudi-eyes-10-million-barrels-a-day-of-oil-pipe-capacity/ - OilPrice - BMI: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/BMI-Predicts-Brent-Crude-Will-Remain-Above-100-for-Months.html - Hydrocarbon Engineering - IEA: https://www.hydrocarbonengineering.com/special-reports/12102026/iea-latest-on-diesel-market-strains/ - World Oil - TotalEnergies: https://www.worldoil.com/news/2026/10/12/totalenergies-pledges-further-diesel-price-cuts-in-france-amid-oil-crisis/ - Splash247 - ClarkSea: https://splash247.com/shippings-extraordinary-boom-refuses-to-peak/ - gCaptain - ceasefire: https://gcaptain.com/trump-says-russia-and-ukraine-agreed-to-energy-ceasefire/ - gCaptain - Tillis: https://gcaptain.com/republican-senator-says-trumps-russian-diesel-deal-may-be-illegal/ - OilPrice - House: https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/North-America/House-Republicans-Move-to-Block-Trumps-Russian-Diesel-Deal.html - Rigzone - exports: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/russias_oil_product_exports_rise-10-oct-2026-184813-article/?rss=true - Rigzone - Zelenskyy: https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/zelenskyy_risks_split_with_trump-12-oct-2026-184825-article/?rss=true - OilPrice - Black Sea: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Black-Sea-Oil-Shipping-Insurance-Costs-Surge-to-25-Million.html - OilPrice: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/European-Natural-Gas-Prices-Headed-for-Multi-Year-Highs.html - LNG Industry: https://www.lngindustry.com/special-reports/12102026/europe-enters-winter-with-historically-low-storage-levels-reinforcing-the-need-for-lng-imports-and-storage-flexibility/ - EIA: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68284 - BSEE/MMA: https://www.bsee.gov/newsroom/latest-news/statements-and-releases/press-releases/mma-monitors-gulf-response-isaias6 - Rigzone - EIA stocks: https://www.rigzone.com/news/usa_crude_oil_stocks_drop_over_3mm_barrels_week_on_week-09-oct-2026-184816-article/?rss=true - OilPrice: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Pakistan-Looks-to-Import-Crude-Oil-from-Libya-to-Diversify-Supply.html - gCaptain: https://gcaptain.com/eu-targets-major-russian-shipyards-in-sweeping-sanctions-expansion/ The Gulf tanker war widened over the weekend and crude rose. Brent hit $106.80, up $2.09, and WTI hit $93.78, up $1.93. Early Monday the Russia-Ukraine "energy ceasefire" had pulled prices lower, but the Middle East attacks outweighed it by the US session. European gas is at its highest since early 2023.

This episode is written with AI from public sources and read by an AI clone of Jaime's voice, not recorded by Jaime. Show notes link to every source.

In this episode

  • Gulf: attacks spread beyond the Strait
  • Russia: Trump's "energy ceasefire" and diesel deal
  • European gas: TTF near €83
  • US Gulf: Hurricane Isaias

Read the full written brief

Sources

Gulf: attacks spread beyond the Strait

Russia: Trump's "energy ceasefire" and diesel deal

European gas: TTF near €83

US Gulf: Hurricane Isaias

Also noted

]]> the-spread-2026-10-12 Mon, 12 Oct 2026 06:00:00 +0000 6:33 false full